Friday, July 17, 2009

Maximize the Benefit of a Losing Variable Annuity

I had the chance back in the 01-03 bear market to help some clients with variable annuities maximize the benefits of investments that had gone sour, and just this past week ran across another opportunity to help a potential client with this same strategy. Here is what to look for:

  • You purchased a variable annuity that has lost value.
  • The death benefit of your annuity is calculated based on a dollar for dollar reduction for withdrawals.

Here is how this strategy works:

Let's say you originally put $100,000 in the annuity and the value has now dropped to $70,000. The death benefit of this annuity equals premium payments less withdrawals on a dollar for dollar basis. You withdraw most of the money from your annuity, leaving only enough to keep the policy active. Let's say you must leave $5,000 in the policy so the insurance company can't cancel the contract. That means you withdraw $65,000 from the policy and move that money elsewhere to recover as the markets recover. Your death benefit on the annuity falls from $100,000 to $35,000 refecting this withdrawal.

What you have done in effect is to create a synthetic paid up whole life insurance policy that will pay out one day to your heirs. Meanwhile your remaining value can be invested to create even more wealth and income for you and your heirs.

This opportunity may also apply if you have a 403b plan that utilizes group variable annuities.

This strategy will not work if the death benefit of your policy is calculated on a pro rata basis, and the insurance industry has caught on to this ploy so most new policies have a pro rata calculation. So before you exchange an old annuity or just give up on it check to see if there may be a better way to skin that cat.

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Wednesday, July 08, 2009

Understanding Money Supply and the Federal Reserve

I have to disagree with the talking heads I've seen on television recently, warning investors of hyper inflation. According to these 'experts' a serious bout of inflation is imminent due to the tremendous injections of liquidity by the Federal Reserve. I believe these pundits are overlooking one of the most basic factors in economics and I fear some of the talk is more politically motivated than financially motivated. While it is true that the Federal Reserve has been pumping money into our economy, the important thing these pundits miss is the 'why'.

There are two components to the effective money supply in the US economy. One is the amount of cash flowing through the economy, and the second is the velocity of the cash flowing through the economy. Of the two, the velocity of money is the more important.

If you studied economics is college you will recall that the velocity of money is normally a function of bank reserve requirements, which are set by the Fed. Simply put, if the reserve requirements are set at 20% then each dollar does the work of five dollars (100/20). If the reserve requirements are set at 10% then each dollar does the work of $10 (100/10).

I say under normal conditions because what we have seen during this credit crunch is anything but normal. Usually banks lend as much as they are allowed to lend based on the reserve requirements. That is how they make profits. However, because of loose lending standards in the past and questionable reserves, lending in our economy has slowed to a virtual crawl. Couple this decreased lending with increased reserve requirements for non bank financial entities such as Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sacks and you have created a serious speed bump for the velocity of money in our economy.

As lending contracts, the velocity of money in our system contracts. Because velocity is usually a multiplier of the physical currency in circulation any contraction in velocity reduces the effective liquidity in our economy many times.

The Federal Reserve's policy of providing liquidity to our ailing economy is not currently inflationary, it is simply an attempt to offset the slowing velocity of money. Without this infusion of liquidity there is a real danger of deflation, which is much harder for the Fed to fight than inflation. It is easier to slow the economy down than it is to speed the economy up.

The Federal Reserve will need to be vigilant as the economy eventually improves. The liquidity injected into the system could become inflationary as the velocity of money through our economy accelerates. But that won't occur until the credit crunch abates, which is a problem we would all like to see come sooner rather than later. Until then investors should not be overly concerned with inflation. Coming to the party too soon is nearly as bad as staying too late.

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