Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Holy Cow! They're finally catching on!


Recently Registered Rep Magazine posted an article 'Forget Stock Market Gains , It's Best to Avoid Losses' Well, it's about time!

The article features a mutual fund company that is just now figuring out what we have known all along, the math of investment losses makes preserving capital the most important task facing individual investors. Maybe soon they will realize that folks don't buy stock because they enjoy getting proxy notices, we buy stock in hopes of actually making money, and if the market stinks we want to take our marbles somewhere else to play.

If you lose 10% it takes just over 11% to be back to even. That kind of gain is quite common for the S&P. If you suffer a 20% loss you need a 25% gain just to be even, years where the S&P rise 25% are rare. If you suffer a 50% loss it takes a 100% gain just to get back to even, the S&P will take years to achieve the double you need for that. It is easy to see that avoiding really big losses is the key to investor heaven.

But rather than put together a mutual fund that is fighting the last war, investors would do better to learn to recognize the warning signals that the markets exhibit and be prepared or even expect that you'll need to sell any investment from time to time.

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