How Bad Can It Get?
Some tidbits I picked up over the last couple of weeks. Thanks to the guys at MFS.
THE LAST TIME - The S&P 500 is down 37.7% YTD (total return), on pace to suffer its worst calendar year result since 1931 when the index fell 43.3%. In the 5-years after the 1931 loss (i.e., 1932-36), the S&P 500 gained +176% or an average annual gain of +22.5 (total return). The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market.
WORST IN 66 YEARS - The closing low point during the current bear market occurred on 11/20/08 (i.e., just 11 days ago) when the S&P 500 finished at 752, down 51.9% from its 10/09/07 peak close of 1565. The “peak to trough” drop of 51.9% is the worst for the stock index since 1942
A LOWER LOW - The S&P 500’s closing low value of 752 during the current bear market (set on 11/20/08) is less than the closing low point from the last bear market (i.e., the 2000-02 stock market decline), the first time that has happened since the low close from the 1973-74 bear market was less than the low close from the 1968-70 bear market
REAL ESTATE SALES - In July 2006, the median sales price of existing homes sold nationwide peaked at $230,200. The national median sales price has fallen to $183,300 as of October 2008, a 20% decline and a fall of almost $47,000 (source: National Association of Realtors).
WISHFUL THINKING? - Nearly 1 out of every 3 US homeowners (32%) believes the value of his/her primary residence has increased in value over the last year (source: USA Today).
BANKING BUSINESS - 22 banks have failed in the country YTD. Over the previous 6 calendar years (2002-07), 22 banks failed in the USA. As of 9/30/08, the government is monitoring 171 banks that are in danger of failing (source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation).
THE RANGE - In the 1-year following the low point from each of the 9 bear markets that have occurred since 1957 (not counting the current 10th bear market) the S&P 500 has experienced a double-digit return. The best of the 9 produced a +58.3% return. The worst of the 9 was up +23.2%. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market (source: BTN Research).
THEY TOOK THEIR TIME - 7 years ago this Wednesday (11/26/01), the organization responsible for determining the beginning and end dates of US recessions declared that a recession had started on 3/31/01. A later announcement that this particular recession had lasted only 8 months and that it had ended on 11/30/01 was made public on 7/17/03 or more than 1 ½ years later (source: National Bureau of Economic Research).
As of 12-01-2008 they made it official that we are currently in a recession that began in December 2007.
THE LAST TIME - The S&P 500 is down 37.7% YTD (total return), on pace to suffer its worst calendar year result since 1931 when the index fell 43.3%. In the 5-years after the 1931 loss (i.e., 1932-36), the S&P 500 gained +176% or an average annual gain of +22.5 (total return). The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market.
WORST IN 66 YEARS - The closing low point during the current bear market occurred on 11/20/08 (i.e., just 11 days ago) when the S&P 500 finished at 752, down 51.9% from its 10/09/07 peak close of 1565. The “peak to trough” drop of 51.9% is the worst for the stock index since 1942
A LOWER LOW - The S&P 500’s closing low value of 752 during the current bear market (set on 11/20/08) is less than the closing low point from the last bear market (i.e., the 2000-02 stock market decline), the first time that has happened since the low close from the 1973-74 bear market was less than the low close from the 1968-70 bear market
REAL ESTATE SALES - In July 2006, the median sales price of existing homes sold nationwide peaked at $230,200. The national median sales price has fallen to $183,300 as of October 2008, a 20% decline and a fall of almost $47,000 (source: National Association of Realtors).
WISHFUL THINKING? - Nearly 1 out of every 3 US homeowners (32%) believes the value of his/her primary residence has increased in value over the last year (source: USA Today).
BANKING BUSINESS - 22 banks have failed in the country YTD. Over the previous 6 calendar years (2002-07), 22 banks failed in the USA. As of 9/30/08, the government is monitoring 171 banks that are in danger of failing (source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation).
THE RANGE - In the 1-year following the low point from each of the 9 bear markets that have occurred since 1957 (not counting the current 10th bear market) the S&P 500 has experienced a double-digit return. The best of the 9 produced a +58.3% return. The worst of the 9 was up +23.2%. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market (source: BTN Research).
THEY TOOK THEIR TIME - 7 years ago this Wednesday (11/26/01), the organization responsible for determining the beginning and end dates of US recessions declared that a recession had started on 3/31/01. A later announcement that this particular recession had lasted only 8 months and that it had ended on 11/30/01 was made public on 7/17/03 or more than 1 ½ years later (source: National Bureau of Economic Research).
As of 12-01-2008 they made it official that we are currently in a recession that began in December 2007.
Labels: bear market, recession
posted by Joe Taylor at 7:02 PM
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